Do you need to be lucky to be good or be good to be lucky?
We’ll find out which side of that statement the Kansas City Chiefs sit on when they visit the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game on Championship Sunday.
Many believe Kansas City is lucky to be back in the conference title game for a sixth straight postseason, having defeated two injury-riddled rosters in Miami and Buffalo and benefiting from a late missed field goal in its Divisional Round win over the Bills.
Baltimore, which has been one of the unluckiest franchises in recent years due to injuries, is finally healthy and looking strong after crushing Houston in its Divisional Round matchup. That’s why the NFL odds currently have the home side laying -3.5 points for the AFC title game.
I dissect the spread and Over/Under for the AFC Championship Game and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Chiefs vs. Ravens on Sunday, January 28.
We’ve also got a deeper dive into Chiefs vs. Ravens weather to further assist your wagers and more great bets in our Lamar Jackson prop picks.
Chiefs vs Ravens odds
Chiefs vs Ravens predictions
Lamar Jackson is going to win his second NFL MVP award, which puts him alongside some elite company. Yet, despite that inevitable honor, some folks don’t want to give Lamar his flowers.
The AFC Championship Game seems like as good a proving ground as any, especially with another multi-time MVP under center for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Wrestling legend Ric Flair infamously said, “If you want to be the man, you’ve got to beat the man,” and Patrick Mahomes is currently “The Man.” Outshining Mahomes is a tall task, but Lamar has been stepping up to the challenge all season.
The Baltimore Ravens have risen to the occasion against many of the top teams in the NFL this season, “Iverson Stepping” over the fifth-hardest schedule in the land with wins against playoff teams like Houston (twice), Cleveland, Detroit, Miami, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. Jackson was stellar in those outings, blowing up rival stop units with his dual-threat talents.
For those who don’t think Lamar is a “passing QB,” consider that in those seven circled games versus postseason qualifiers, he completed almost 71% of his attempts for an average of more than 250 passing yards with 17 touchdown connections — an average of 2.4 TD passes per game.
Jackson, who has 26 total touchdown passes, has collected 13 of those scores over his last five games, including two TD throws in the Divisional Round squash of Houston. He topped his passing TD total of 1.5 O/U against the Texans (Over +100) and has the same total with an even better return for the AFC title game.
FanDuel is offering the Over 1.5 touchdown passes from Jackson at +144 odds.
I get why the Over is priced higher than last week. The Chiefs present a tougher overall defensive test than Houston and sit second (tied with the Texans) in passing TDs allowed per game at only 1.1. Kansas City has been stout in the red zone, allowing the 10th-lowest TD rate, but could be missing key cogs at each level on Sunday.
Furthermore, the Chiefs defense is dependent on disrupting rival QBs with Steve Spagnuolo’s blitz-heavy schemes (fifth-highest blitz rate). Jackson, conversely, has faced the third-lowest pressure rate and sits among the best QBs under duress — just behind Mahomes in terms of PFF grading under pressure.
What’s not being factored into Jackson’s touchdown pass total is the probable return of tight end Mark Andrews. He’s been sidelined since Week 11 with an ankle injury but was a full participant in practice last week before sitting out the Divisional Round, keeping the AFC Championship as his target date.
Andrews had eight touchdown catches before going down and led the Ravens in receiving TDs the previous two seasons. He’s Jackson’s top target and adds a reliable red zone option for the Ravens’ QB, especially when you consider Lamar has still been lighting up the scoreboard without Andrews in action.
Player projections for the AFC title game have Jackson’s touchdown forecast between 1.5 and 1.6 but no models are calling for fewer TDs and my number sits at 1.75 TD passes, given his current form and tendency to step up as a passer in the biggest games.
My best bet: Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+144 at FanDuel) 50% live boost availablePicks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Chiefs vs Ravens same-game parlay
Ravens moneylineLamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdownsPatrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing touchdownsNo-sweat promo available
+439 at FanDuel
The Ravens have risen to the occasion against the league’s top teams all season and defend their home field for a ticket to the Super Bowl.
Jackson is clicking right now with 13 TD passes in his last five games. He’ll also have favorite target TE Mark Andrews back in the mix.
Mahomes won’t go down without a fight. He and Travis Kelce are back on track and he’s trusting his other receivers more.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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