Regardless of how the 2022 season trickles down for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, this year is going to make for one compelling episode of “Man in the Arena” based on the offseason alone.
Tom Brady’s retirement had the life span of a New Year’s resolution and Bruce Arians hung up his Kangol and Darth Vader chest piece, turning the team over to promoted defensive coordinator Todd Bowles.
On paper, all the pieces of a championship team are still in Tampa and the Bucs’ NFL odds confirm that outlook, pricing them among the top contenders in terms of Super Bowl, NFC title, and season win total markets.
We poke around the pirate ship to figure out the best ways to wager on Tampa Bay in 2022 (Unders off the starboard bow!). Ahoy, Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL betting preview ahead!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +700 |
| To win conference | +295 |
| To win division | -230 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 11 (Under -130) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes -420 / No +350 |
Best futures bet: Over 11 wins (+110)
Given the look-ahead lines siding with the Buccaneers in all but one game (that being a PK at 49ers in Week 14), it’s no surprise to find Tampa Bay’s win total as high as 11.5 at many popular books, with the Under priced between -125 and -135.
Superbook is hanging Under 11 -130 as of this writing — promoting Over 11 wins at +110 with push protection at a better return than some places hanging Over 11.5 (+105).
Doing a rough rundown of the Bucs’ calendar, it doesn’t take a major deep dive to dig up at least 11 victories. Tampa does tackle a much tougher schedule compared to last season but gets the benefit of playing host in a number of big games.
I do expect the offense to take steps back after ranking No. 1 in DVOA at Football Outsiders, but it still finishes inside the Top 10, complementing a Top-10 stop unit. That’s good enough for a dozen Ws in 2022.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers betting overview
What will win bets: Defense
Brady Shmady. The beating heart of the Buccaneers is Todd Bowles’ defense.
Tampa Bay was ranked 32nd in DVOA back in 2018 and has since finished No. 6, No. 5, and No. 9 in that advanced measurement the past three years, headlined by one of the stingiest run stops in the land. The Bucs owned the fifth-lowest EPA per handoff in 2021 and had the eighth-most tackles for a loss.
Taking away the ground game makes opposing offenses one-dimensional and then unleashes a lethal linebacker corps with a playbook that blitzed on a league-high 40.8% of dropbacks and picked up a pressure rate of 28.6% (second-highest) with 42 sacks. That chaos caused many game-changing plays in the way of turnovers, with 17 interceptions and 12 fumble takeaways.
Tampa Bay ranked out 16th in my QB SOS but runs into a number of quality offensive attacks. Wrangling those formidable foes is vital to the Bucs making good on all those favored spreads in 2022.
What will lose bets: Offensive line
Tampa Bay ranked out as the best pass protection team in football last season, sitting No. 1 in adjusted sack rate at Football Outsiders and allowing Brady to feel the heat on just 11% of dropbacks with 22 sacks taken.
The offseason saw the sudden retirement of guard Ali Marpet and Alex Cappa signing with Cincinnati. Those blows were softened a bit by the acquisition of Shaq Mason from the Patriots, but depth on the O-line is quickly becoming a sore spot this summer.
Guard Aaron Stinnie and center Ryan Jensen are already gone for the season (knees) and All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs has been battling an oblique injury in camp. That leaves massive holes in this line, which faces a bunch of potent pass rushes to open the year.
Tom Brady’s mobility is that of a 45-year-old sloth covered in molasses in the middle of a Canadian winter. So, you can see where this is going. He’s given his teams the edge at quarterback throughout his career – an edge that may be dulled in 2022.
With father time sneaking up, a downtick in protection, and aggressive pass rushes nullifying his effectiveness, the Bucs may be behind the curve in QB comparisons with the likes of Prescott, Rodgers, Mahomes, Jackson, Stafford, Burrow, and Kyler Murray on deck.
More Covers NFL betting analysis
- Super Bowl odds
- NFL MVP odds
- Comeback Player of the Year odds
- Defensive Player of the Year odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers game-by-game odds
Tampa Bay is a favorite in all but one game in 2022 (PK at San Francisco in Week 14), adding up to an average spread of -4.94. It drew the same number of favored look-aheads in 2021 when it was coming off a Super Bowl win, but faced a much lighter load, ranked out 29th in SOS last season (and it got easier as the year went on).
All that 2022 chalk comes despite the Buccaneers drawing the fourth-hardest schedule this season. That said, Tampa gets many of its toughest foes at home: Green Bay, Kansas City, Baltimore, the L.A. Rams, and Cincinnati. The Buccos are 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS at home the past two seasons.
Six of their spreads come in at a field goal or lower. Since Brady took over as captain of the pirate ship, the “Tampa Toms” have been faves of -3 or smaller just three times in two seasons, finishing 1-2 SU and ATS. On the flip of this, the Bucs are giving six or more points in six games, with the team posting a 20-2 SU mark and 13-9 ATS count (59%) when laying -6 or higher.
Tampa Bay opens 2022 with back-to-back road games but then plays five of the next eight contests inside Raymond James Stadium with only two true road trips and a neutral-site matchup in Germany before the bye in Week 11.
| 1 | @ Dallas | -1 | 50 |
| 2 | @ New Orleans | -3 | 47 |
| 3 | vs. Green Bay | -3 | 52.5 |
| 4 | vs. Kansas City | -2.5 | 53 |
| 5 | vs. Atlanta | -11.5 | 51 |
| 6 | @ Pittsburgh | -6 | 47.5 |
| 7 | @ Carolina | -6 | 48 |
| 8 | vs. Baltimore | -4 | 49.5 |
| 9 | vs. L.A. Rams | -2.5 | 51.5 |
| 10 | vs. Seattle (GER) | -9 | 47 |
| 11 | BYE | ||
| 12 | @ Cleveland | -3.5 | 48 |
| 13 | vs. New Orleans | -7 | 47 |
| 14 | @ San Francisco | PK | 49 |
| 15 | vs. Cincinnati | -5 | 50.5 |
| 16 | @ Arizona | -3 | 52 |
| 17 | vs. Carolina | -105 | 48 |
| 18 | @ Atlanta | -6.5 | 46.5 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
I get the reasons for concern about the offensive line, and also the reasons for concern on Brady entering his age 45 season. However, I won’t be the one betting against him.
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